[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050555 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...ERN IA...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397...

VALID 050555Z - 050730Z

THE STRONGER STORMS IN A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WW 397 WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WCNTRL
IL WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BROAD
40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LINE IS SUSTAINING
THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD. A MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM KS EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS MO AND IA. THIS JET IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF
30 TO 40 KT ALONG THE LINE WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE
THREAT CONSIDERING THE LINE IS MOVING INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM
AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE
LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VORTICITY
MAX SHOWN BY THE RUC...MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42459245 43269229 43589186 43659005 43398943 42888905
40188907 39398936 39069005 39099132 39499211 40799230 

WWWW