[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030059 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-030230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...KS AND NRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376...377...

VALID 030059Z - 030230Z

SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL
INITIATION OCCURRING UPSTREAM VCNTY KCOS...SEEDING DOWNSTREAM
STORMS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-EVENING TRANSITION INTO A MCS WILL
OCCUR WITH STRENGTHENING COLD POOL.  THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH 03Z AS THE
COLD POOL ACCELERATES ESEWD.  ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHORT-LIVED TCU/CBS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SWWD
INTO WRN KS AND NCNTRL OK.  BUT...CAP HAS HELD AND PROBABILITIES FOR
INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.

SCENARIO FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED GIVEN
APPROACH OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW. PREFERRED TRACK OF THE MCS
SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST CAP/UPPER RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WAVE...MAINLY FROM ECNTRL CO EWD THROUGH WCNTRL
KS AND TOWARD THE SALINA AREA OVERNIGHT.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES AND EXPIRATION TIMES OF THE TORNADO
WATCHES APPROACH...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL CO
INTO CNTRL/NRN KS.

..RACY.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38770514 40860517 40910242 40110220 39389862 39089711
38559672 38079681 35879688 37570178 38680200 

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