[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030026 
TXZ000-030200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030026Z - 030200Z

STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE
AZ UPPER WAVE...MARKED BY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA AND FAR W TX.  HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SINCE
2330Z AND THIS MAY BE A SIGN OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
THE EVENING.  BEFORE THE ENHANCED UVV REACHES THE AREA...ONE OR TWO
SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD FORT STOCKTON WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.  LOW-LEVEL SELY
FLOW BENEATH INCREASING H7 FLOW AND 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY
AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  

AS STRONGER UVV MOVES EWD...CELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LOOPY
SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN TX.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

30410379 30930401 31810340 32330203 32120123 31120129
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