[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260833 
MIZ000-261000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN LOWER MI-

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 260833Z - 261000Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER
CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
MOVE E OF WW 685 AND INTO NRN PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI. WW 685 WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM THE W AS STORMS SHIFT EWD. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE
INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WW. 

THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO
SWRN MI MOVING EWD AT 40 TO 45 KT. INSTABILITY REMAINS INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 50 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS
RESULTED IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND STORMS MIGHT BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. THE
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION
OF THE STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD. HOWEVER...THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER
MI MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS.

..DIAL.. 07/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

42508387 43368417 44168372 43708270 42718269 

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