[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241533 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SE SD...NRN IA...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241533Z - 241730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK...WITH LITTLE READILY EVIDENT LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID/
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR HURON SD INTO THE VICINITY OF
AINSWORTH NEB.

ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...BUT WITH
CONTINUED HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...MODELS SUGGEST STORMS
LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF
2000...AND MAY INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THROUGH PEAK
HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN
STORM CLUSTERS. THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE FLOW EAST OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41930045 42509972 43359889 43889766 44199539 44539310
44079216 42789178 42519473 41749837 41110071 

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