[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241422 
OHZ000-MIZ000-241515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668...670...

VALID 241422Z - 241515Z

WW 668 HAS RECENTLY BEEN CANCELLED.  LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...WEST OF CLEVELAND...BY
16-18Z.  BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 670 MAY BE CANCELLED
BEFORE 18Z EXPIRATION.

ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TRAVERSE CITY MI
SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF FINDLAY OH...BUT IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD...LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18-19Z.
 STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN CAPPING
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE.  THESE STORMS
LIKELY WILL BE BASED AT MID-LEVELS...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY
LIMITED TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...GRR...

44648444 44598328 43188096 41858078 40988087 40328198
40898338 41778384 43098455 43898480 

WWWW