[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222029 
WYZ000-222200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222029Z - 222200Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN ERN WY OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A WW ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND
NWWD INTO ERN WY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 F AND MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG. CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AROUND THE UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED IN NE CO.
HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 30 KT
ACROSS ECNTRL AND NERN WY SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

41820464 41630541 42620607 43950671 44580686 44920529
43460435 42240413 

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