[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211747 
NDZ000-SDZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211747Z - 211915Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE
GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN
THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK
HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND
STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS
INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052
47270038 45310086 43600150 

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