[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211745 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211745Z - 211945Z

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. 

LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING
ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER
EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS
EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO
THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY
10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD
HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS
FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY
FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND
FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM
2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047
37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882
36077814 36187712 36827633 

WWWW