[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202256 
CAZ000-210130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 202256Z - 210130Z

TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN INTENSITY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO/SAN DIEGO MTNS OF SRN CA
THROUGH 00Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN MOVE INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS PRIOR TO WEAKENING. 

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO CTY MTNS NWD INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
LOW-MID LEVEL ELY FLOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES EVIDENT BY REGIONAL
VWP/S SUGGESTS VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
SEVERAL HRS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN HIGH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THREAT FOR HVY RAIN
WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE GREATER MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL EXIST. WEAKENING CINH PER
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY SLOWLY PROPAGATE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO THE
ADJACENT LOWER DESERTS OF SRN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...

32681627 33581664 34141718 34471718 34701750 34841684
34431632 33711598 32681567 

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