[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202244 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN/CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651...

VALID 202244Z - 202345Z

IN THE SHORT-TERM...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER NRN IL WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION.

AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK BOOKEND VORTEX FROM CLINTON COUNTY IN CNTRL LOWER MI
SWD INTO DEFIANCE AND PAULDING COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN OH. WHILE IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME DEGREE OF A COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL OH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST
FRONT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

FARTHER TO THE W...ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM WHITESIDE
EWD INTO COOK AND WILL COUNTIES IL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ALONG
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED MCS. AIR
MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI CAN INTERACT WITH THIS AXIS
OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY.

WW 651 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..MEAD.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39659015 41568747 43078598 41398484 39048984 

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