[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151922 
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK/NE TX/NRN LA AND CNTRL/SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 151922Z - 152045Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/NE
TX INTO CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN LA. A SEVERE WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ON PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANT MCV ACROSS NE
TX...WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS FROM ALONG THE RED RIVER
OF SRN OK/NRN TX INTO CNTRL AR. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE...WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH UPPER/SFC TROUGH AND MCV MAY PROVIDE AN INITIAL
FOCUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIMITED BY WEAK /10-15 KTS OR LESS/ LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
PER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN/HR.

..GUYER.. 07/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32329164 32189380 32559443 32969503 33099622 33059743
33509795 33959801 34849625 35509424 35409198 35439073
34509064 33189125 

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