[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141827 
TXZ000-142130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 141827Z - 142130Z

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE HILL COUNTY OF TX
WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
HOWEVER...HVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HRLY RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES. 

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER NWRN TX THAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LBB VWP DATA INDICATED
AROUND 30 KTS OF NLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE MOVING
TOWARDS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
THIS UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SJT TO TPL TO PSN. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500
J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME
PULSE SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTY WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS. FARTHER EAST...WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
SLOWER EWD STM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN HILL
COUNTRY/I-35 CORRIDOR FROM AUS TO ACT AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO NEAR
CLL.

..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31719714 31719919 31210003 30390013 29889944 29679863
29659726 29839653 30359607 30819593 31639673 

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