[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131759 COR
NCZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 131759Z - 132030Z

CORRECTED FOR END OF MIDDLE PARAGRAPH

ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WSWWD AROUND 10-15 KTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 IN. WILL BE
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SERN NC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HALIFAX SWD INTO CATARET
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS ERN NC OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY A STG CONVECTION AND A MODEST COLD
POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE SRN OUTER BANKS REGION.
FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN INCREASING
WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT
BY RECENT CAE VWP AND SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WSWWD INTO SERN NC... EXPECT BOUNDARY/ISOLATED
CELL COLLISIONS TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 10 KT ELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH 20 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DMGG MICROBURSTS WITH CELL/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER SC MOVES ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NC AFTER 20Z...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD AND ENHANCE THE STRONG/ISO
DMGG WIND THREAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER SERN NC. 

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING
CELLS EAST OF THE GUST FRONT AND LINE MERGERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY
HVY RAINFALL. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT HRLY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR.

..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

35277671 36327744 36297810 35287878 34757906 34387905
33897858 33867803 34507742 34717658 

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