[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131757 
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-131900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131757Z - 131900Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND VT WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. MONITORING AREA FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

COMPLEX OF ELEVATED STORMS BETWEEN ART AND PBG HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED
AS DOWNDRAFTS HAVE CONGEALED AND STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LATER.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR PBG TO UCA AND SYR. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MULTICELL STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. STRONGER FORCING
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO STILL SOME
UNCERTAINLY WHETHER THE COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

..IMY.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43247633 43487507 44037389 45167308 44877172 43357231
42147469 42417562