[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102057 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102057Z - 102300Z

ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM
INTO SW TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF FAR SE CO/ERN NM REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN NM PLAINS INTO SW TX.
IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHER
ISOLD TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION NEAR MIDLAND. 

ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST W/NW FLOW IS PRESENT IN MID LEVELS...MODERATE
S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS PER TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS
WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.
ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO SUGGESTS A SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 07/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

37310382 37360241 35310269 33840275 32730263 32530072
31130069 30170263 31170477 33150547 35250517 37300434