[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102025 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY INTO WRN ND/WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102025Z - 102230Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF DYNAMIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SPREADING ENE ACROSS ERN MT/NCNTRL
WY AT THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE
MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GIVEN APPROACHING IMPULSE AND WARM
SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION/STRONG CINH EAST OF WCNTRL DAKOTAS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
INVOF AND WEST OF SFC REFLECTION OF FRONT ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL ND AND
WRN SD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY FEATURES INCIPIENT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SW SD INVOF BLACK HILLS...WITH CU FIELD
SLOWLY EVOLVING NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND.

MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 3000-4000
J/KG MUCAPE WITHIN RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/JUST WEST OF
SFC FRONT. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POST-FRONTAL PER
WSR-88D VAD PROFILES/RUC SOUNDINGS...RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS INVOF
SFC FRONT TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ND/NW SD.
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A
SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GUYER.. 07/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

49060282 49090127 48959954 47159985 44610053 43270172
43180300 44170575 45750555 48280329 

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