[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080256 
NDZ000-080430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623...

VALID 080256Z - 080430Z

...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND ISOLD
TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL ND FROM JUST NW OF
BISMARCK TO WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...

STORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AFTER STORM INITIATION BEGAN A
COUPLE HOURS AGO. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OBSERVED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...WITH
TOPS TO 62000 FEET. AIRMASS BECAME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KT OBSERVED FROM THE
00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35
KT / SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TSTMS.

STRONGEST STORM AS OF 0230Z IS NEAR MERCER COUNTY...ROUGHLY 40-50
MILES NW OF BIS. THIS STORM HAS A STRONG PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONE
NOTED IN SRM VELOCITY NOW TRACKING INTO ECNTRL MERCER COUNTY...WITH
RECENT REPORTS OF A TORNADO FROM SPOTTERS. LEFT SPLIT FROM PARENT
SUPERCELL MOVED INTO WARD CO...AND WILL MOVE INTO MCHENRY CO
SHORTLY...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. NRN STRONGER STORM IN BOTTINEAU
CO RECENTLY HAD BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED WITH IT.

THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO A STRONG MCS. FOR NOW...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR WIND GUSTS.

..TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46809944 46750145 46860211 47840164 49010090 49039892
48199903