[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072247 
NDZ000-080045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072247Z - 080045Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. A WW WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS AT THE SURFACE BUT STORMS HAVE NOT YET
FORMED DESPITE LACK OF CIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OA FIELDS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY BE COMING OUT CURRENTLY.
THUS...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOON WITHIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 

VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING
LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

47010330 49010290 49009921 47039952 

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