[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072201 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-MDZ000-072300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND SRN/ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF SRN MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...620...

VALID 072201Z - 072300Z

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WRN NC WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.  AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
WASHINGTON D.C. AREA.  THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM NC TO ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOB 70F.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SWRN VA AND THE BLACKSBURG VWP
SHOWS 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONT INTO SRN VA/NRN NC. 
TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS NC AND MOVE NEWD INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT. MANY CELLS ARE EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER NEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND PERHAPS
AS FAR AS PARTS OF MD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST
NIGHT WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVED OVER AL/GA.  BUT...VERY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS N OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES.  AS SUCH...MORE WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

..RACY.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MHX...

36258117 37727857 35917861 34528111 

37757848 36937548 35187554 36007846 

36897953 37467849 37417767 37127708 36727705 36477746
36237822 35837926 36338000 

38157862 38647814 39047767 38687701 38167682 37457718
37737869 

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