[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070944 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-071115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA/UPSTATE SC/WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617...

VALID 070944Z - 071115Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
HAVE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.

AT 09Z...T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 30 NW ATL WITH A CONTINUED
TRACK TO THE NE.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY ACROSS NRN
GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO WRN NC.  LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS NERN GA INTO
WRN NC...SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AND/OR
MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA CONTINUED TO
INDICATE LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY...WITH 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES CLOSE TO 300 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. 
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THE BAND OF STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF WW 617.

WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO LIKELIHOOD FROM NERN
GA NEWD TO SWRN/WRN NC ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

33478364 35048360 36248043 34648033 

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