[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050827 
OKZ000-051000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 050827Z - 051000Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN OK...MOVING SEWD
TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN OK.  FARTHER S...ZONE OF TRAINING STORMS
LOCATED W-E FROM SRN CADDO AND COMANCHE COUNTIES TO SERN OK IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR.

...NWRN INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK...
SRN EXTENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN KS /20 E HUT/ SWWD
INTO NWRN OK /45 NNE CSM/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL OK...LIKELY REACHING THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z. 
WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW STRUCTURE WILL
INHIBIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL AND 50 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR PROPAGATION TOWARD THE
SE.  SRN PORTION OF THIS BOW ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STRONGEST AS THIS PART MOVES SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...WITH CURRENT FORWARD MOVEMENT OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

...SRN OK...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM SRN CADDO/COMANCHE COUNTIES EWD TO SERN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
TRAINING EWD.  25 KT SLY LLJ PER WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILERS IS
NOSING INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED
A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W ACROSS NRN TX...WITH THE
NEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OK SUPPORTED BY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA WITH THE LLJ.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST 1 IN/HOUR RAINFALL RATES.  STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SWRN-WRN OK
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND AS A 50 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADS
INTO THIS AREA.  THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

36939811 36759706 36149646 35779574 35119544 34529501
34029507 34159653 34439788 34379868 34579902 35389937
35989951 

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