[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050648 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050648Z - 050715Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SERN
NM.  STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY SINCE 06Z
WITH A BOW STRUCTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ERN LAMB COUNTY TX SWWD
TO NRN LEA COUNTY NM.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY UN-TURNED...WITH THIS FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING SSEWD TO A LINE FROM INK-MAF-50 W ABI.  AIR
MASS S AND E OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND
THUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP A MOIST SELY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

34230183 34180075 33110065 32240082 32020153 31840236
31790308 32730359 33120355 33490233 

WWWW