[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031239 
KSZ000-NEZ000-031345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031239Z - 031345Z

NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF FAR SRN NEB AND NRN/CENTRAL
KS THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN
NEB TO SWRN NEB INTERSECTED A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN CO...AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL/
ERN KS.  WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT SLY LLJ IS SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS TO SWRN NEB...WITH 35 KT OF
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
STRENGTH THIS MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WAA REGIME EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF
NRN/CENTRAL KS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP.  MODERATE MUCAPE
VALUES PER DDC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATED A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38180020 38700092 40070161 40279990 40229805 38509743
38119881 

WWWW