[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022230 
MNZ000-NDZ000-030030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022230Z - 030030Z

CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF
NRN/WRN AND CNTRL ND THIS EVENING.

SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN ND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NWRN ND
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS SW-NE ORIENTED LEE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CNTRL MT. STORMS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING ACROSS CROSBY COUNTY IN EXTREME NWRN ND...AND A VERY
INTENSE CELL WAS TRACKING ESEWD TOWARD THE BORDER FROM SERN
SASKATCHEWAN...ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOCUSED
ALONG THE WEST-EAST BOUNDARY MIGHT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF A TORNADO
WITH ANY CELL TRACKING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND AND
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...SHEAR...AND FORCING
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN MN MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS REGION IF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
INCREASE/INTENSIFY.

..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48960394 48999677 47849659 46090089 45980372 

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