[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231259 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SRN AND CNTRL NH/MA/DOWNEAST ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD 

VALID 231259Z - 231900Z

HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH
18Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI/ERN MA/COASTAL NH AND DOWNEAST ME.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER
NRN NJ. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD CAPE
COD BY 18Z. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM BOSTON INDICATES 65 KT WINDS
IN THE LOWEST 1KM...WITH 45-50 KT FROM THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM CHATHAM MA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BUOY NEAR 40N/70W WHERE PRESSURE IS 983 MB...AND PRESSURE
HAS BEEN FALLING 2-3MB/HR OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.

LONG RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM NRN NJ NE
TO SRN ME. THE BAND IS CLEARLY PIVOTING...AND WILL LIKELY ASSUME A
MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. CURRENT
BAND SEEMS TO ALIGN WELL WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMUM AND AS
THIS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
LESSEN FIRST ACROSS LONG ISLAND/WRN MA LATER THIS MORNING. 

RECENT SNOWFALL OBSERVATION FROM PROVIDENCE RI SHOWS 4 INCHES OF
SNOW HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST HOUR...SO IT SEEMS 2-4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. SNOW WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME THROUGH THE 2-3 HOURS.
FINALLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF MA WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40-50 KT HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...AND WHERE PVC RECENTLY
REPORTED A 58 KT GUST.

..TAYLOR.. 01/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

45346714 44097037 42967271 41397387 40687398 40397299
41047000 42886860 44056680 44796647 45266650 

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