[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230636 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-231230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/MA/NH/RI/CT/SRN AND CNTRL VT/SRN COASTAL ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD 

VALID 230636Z - 231230Z

VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AS INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS OF NH/ME/MA/RI.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...WITH REMNANTS OF PRIMARY CYCLONE ACROSS
NRN PA. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF OFFSHORE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW. INTENSE UPPER DYNAMICS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SPREADING
FROM NERN PA/ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND AS THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD. AS UPPER AND LOWER DYNAMICS CONVERGE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z...MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO OVER 80KT AND TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INLAND ATOP SURFACE-BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS. LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING
WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND MAINTAIN ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS
BETWEEN 600-700MB...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF HEAVY
SNOW BANDS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/RUC AGREE THAT 06-12Z
SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS ERN
NEW ENGLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOWFALL INTO PARTS
OF NH/ME WHERE BANDED RADAR RETURNS WERE CURRENTLY INCREASING. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
20-40 KT WINDS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES. FARTHER INLAND...FROM ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VT...AND NWRN
MA...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
FRONTOGENETIC BAND THROUGH 12Z...LIKELY IN EXCESS OF MODEL FCSTS.

..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 01/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

44037350 43147493 41467487 40757044 40706882 42436772
44176911 

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