[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090107 
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-090700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NV...SERN ID...EXTREME W-CENTRAL
WY...EXTREME NWRN AND N-CENTRAL UT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 090107Z - 090700Z

HEAVY SNOWS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  RATES WILL
DEPEND ON POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND WWD FACING SLOPES AS DETAILED
BELOW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LINCOLN/TETON
COUNTY BORDER IN WY...SWWD ACROSS BEAR LAKE/FRANKLIN AND SRN ONEIDA
COUNTIES ID...NRN/WRN BOX ELDER COUNTY UT...TO ROUGHLY 30 S EKO. 
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SWD INVOF ID/UT BORDER PAST 1-2 HOURS
BASED ON MESOWEST/RAWS OBS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EXTREME
NRN UT BECAUSE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING/REINFORCEMENT BY ABUNDANT
PRECIP TO ITS N.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER SIERRA NV RANGE -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
ACROSS NV...WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA
THIS EVENING.  LKN RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER.  RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH BETWEEN .25-.5 INCH PW IS PRESENT BENEATH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN 7-8 DEG C/KM RANGE...WITH VERY WEAK CAPE
PRESENT IN RAOB.  ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN
PRECIP BAND OVER NERN NV...AND IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ABOVE
NRN NV.  EXPECT SNOW RATES TO PEAK BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3Z-6Z...WITH UP
TO 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT S OF FRONTAL
ZONE...AND AT SFC FOR ALL ELEVATIONS N OF FRONT.  HEAVIER SNOW RATES
3-4 INCHES/HOUR COULD OCCUR IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS -- FACING W
OR SW -- ALONG AND N OF FRONT. LOCALLY EXTREME RATES NEAR 4
INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

40751712 41721576 42771375 43521160 43591071 43211054
42431054 41801067 41641084 41601097 41661114 41841136
41981170 42001238 41891297 41411378 40791472 40331576
40061648 40411691 

WWWW