[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081212 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...NRN PA...NRN
NJ...CT/RI...MA AND SRN VT/NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 081212Z - 081745Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN NY INTO MA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHERE HRLY RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

THE 06Z ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH PTYPE FORECAST AND HRLY
AMOUNTS IN STRONG WAA REGIME CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY. STRONG
0-2 KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 40 KT DIFFERENCE
IN THE 1-2 KM WINDS BETWEEN PBZ AND BGM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAPID NEWD SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FROM FAR SRN NY NEWD INTO
ECENTRAL NY...MA...SRN VT/NH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RECENT
TRENDS IN SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE SFC LOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY COMPONENT IN IT/S MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS. THUS...EXPECT A MORE EWD TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST
WAA PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SRN NY/FAR NRN PA INTO
MA/NRN CT AND FAR SRN VT/NH THROUGH 18Z.

RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FREEZING ISOTHERM HAS MOVED
INLAND ACROSS NRN NY/FAR SERN NY AND SRN CT...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS
OVER THE VALLEYS OF NRN PA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN PA THROUGH
18Z...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NNWWD
MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE INLAND OVER THE REST OF NRN NJ/LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF SERN NY...SRN CT/MOST OF RI AND SERN
MA...WITH A NWD MOVEMENT OVER NRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
AS THE PRIMARY PTYPES OVER MOST OF SERN NY/NRN CT AND WRN/CENTRAL MA
BY 18Z...WITH A LIGHT-MDT SNOW LIKELY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA...ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AS
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.

..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

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