[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081214 
NYZ000-PAZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 081214Z - 081715Z

MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH
15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION
OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS 
WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND
BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE
OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING.

..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011
42017879 42287733 43247479 

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