[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041802 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-042300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...NRN MO...SRN IA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 041802Z - 042300Z

SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH
IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SWATH FROM NWRN OK/SRN
KS...SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KS AND WRN/SWRN MO THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEING MAINTAINED
WITHIN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FUELING SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION ATOP SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER  WHERE POCKETS OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE WITH STRONG INFLUX OF RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL TX. ZONE OF ASCENT...AND STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ENEWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
CLASSIC MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN SOUNDINGS...SATURATED 850MB WARM
NOSE AND BELOW 0C SFC WET BULB TEMPS...ARE FORECAST IN A BAND FROM
ICT TO MCI TO IRK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES
OF UP TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR
CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING  OVER NWRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS. EXPECT
THIS HEAVY ICING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY ENEWD THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES RESULTING
WITHIN THE CORE OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF
THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS...FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IA
THROUGH 00Z.

..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37099769 36759884 36490021 36560089 36880139 37090146
37530132 37930032 38489921 38759852 39009800 39289738
40539484 41049305 40829126 40289133 39219251 37749517 

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