[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040619 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / WRN KS / EXTREME NWRN OK

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 040619Z - 041215Z

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z FROM FAR NWRN OK
ACROSS SWRN KS INTO ERN CO.  MAXIMUM HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN
EXPECTED.

BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD FREEZING RAIN PROFILES WITH ONLY SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER AT
THE SURFACE. CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AS OF 06Z OVER WRN OK / NW TX
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NWD INTO FAR NWRN OK WHERE
SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS.

FORECAST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS SATURATE PROFILES BETWEEN 10-12 Z W
OF A DDC-GLD LINE...BUT THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY FROM SERN
CO INTO NWRN OK GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

39290363 39730261 39610108 38750012 37789989 36619948
36530001 36660071 36820121 37050193 38020364 

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