[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040051 
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-040615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SW UT...NRN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 040051Z - 040615Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND OCCASIONAL 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM OVER AZ...GENERALLY ALONG
THE RIM THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW UT AND ALSO W AND SW
NM. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE
7000 FT...LOWERING TO 6000-6500 FT LATER TONIGHT FROM NW AZ INTO
SWRN UT.

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW ARE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SWRN AZ. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW AND ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
NWD INTO PARTS OF AZ...NM AND UT. MOREOVER...THIS DEEP MOIST SLY
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT... ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SWD FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM W/SW NM THROUGH
NRN AZ AND INTO SW UT. THE VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE NEWD
EJECTING SHORTWAVES IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES EWD...COOLING ALOFT MAY ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND LOWER
SNOW ELEVATIONS FROM W TO E. SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW ENHANCEMENT MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ WHERE STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.

..DIAL.. 01/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

34321149 35431312 36661381 37831353 38911244 38931130
38331074 36971155 35841138 35061043 35020925 35590768
34700697 33480791 

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