[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031753 
MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/FAR NERN MO...PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI AND
CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 031753Z - 032300Z

A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ERN IA/NERN MO...NRN
IL AND FAR SRN WI THROUGH 21Z. FARTHER EAST...A MIX OF SLEET AND
MODERATE/POSSIBLY HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN
MI FROM 20-00Z. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT
SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP
TO 0.15 IN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA/FAR NERN MO
INTO FAR NRN IL THROUGH 20Z.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD
INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SLEET/ICE EVENT OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AREA AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER LIFT
WITH A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH OVER WRN IL AT 17Z. THE SFC
FREEZING LINE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR IRK NEWD TO THE NRN CHICAGO SUBURBS. QUICK
CESSATION OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD W-E AND AID IN
RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MI DURING THE
20-00Z TIME FRAME. THUS...DESPITE RECENT RISE OF TEMPERATURES IN
THIS REGION STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL AID IN HVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE MID LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION FALL/WET-BULB EFFECTS /CURRENT
DEWPTS NEAR 30/...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HVY SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR
DURING THE 20-00Z PERIOD.

..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

43078794 42628953 42459049 42079120 41209162 40419183
39999162 40349075 41029027 41638952 42208793 42488581
42428370 42878294 43328325 43488481 

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