[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031241 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-031645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / SERN NEBRASKA / NRN MO / SRN IA / EXTREME
NWRN IL

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 031241Z - 031645Z

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SHIFT
NEWD OUT OF KS INTO IA MO AND NRN IL. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES
OF 0.10-0.20 IN WILL BE LIKELY.

WEAK VORT MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN PROFILER DATA NOW
MOVING ACROSS NERN KS HELPING TO FOCUS ZONE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.20 IN NOTED LAST FEW HOURS OVER ERN KS. 
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD...AND WILL CAUSE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE WITHIN 850-700 MB LAYER TO SHIFT ENEWD
AS WELL AS WINDS VEER IN THIS LAYER.

BY 15Z...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NRN MO / SRN IA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWS SLEET
PROFILE AND ICE PELLETS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER SERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...WITH TOPEKA RAOB SHOWING A SOLID FREEZING RAIN PROFILE
WITH ABOUT 130 MUCAPE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF DEEP FRONTAL
ZONE...SLEET WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA...MIXING WITH AND
TURNING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN SWD INTO NRN MO. PRECIPITATION MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  PRECIPITATION
TYPE FCST A BIT LESS CERTAIN OVER NRN IL AS STRONGEST FORCING
ARRIVES BY 18Z.  FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL
ASSUMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING.

..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

38379625 38279680 38999658 39669658 40499666 40999630
41739490 42109314 42309202 42529071 42508856 42098817
41898899 41599037 40509145 40009216 39439480 39309582 

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