[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021524 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...NCENTRAL/NERN PA...WRN
VT...AND FAR WRN MA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 021524Z - 022000Z

SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD FROM
SERN ONTARIO INTO NRN NY AND NWRN VT THROUGH 20Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL END ACROSS SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA THROUGH
17Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD INTO FAR NERN PA...ECENTRAL/SERN
NY...SWRN VT AND FAR WRN MA BETWEEN 17-20Z. HIGHEST ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY...WHERE HRLY AMTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17-20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS
FROM FAR WRN NY SEWD INTO NRN NJ AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOST QUICKLY OVER WRN NY. LEADING EDGE
OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MDT THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 925-850
MB LAYER OVER SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
AROUND 30 KTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MID
30S...THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END OVER THIS AREA BY 17Z.
FARTHER NE...DRIER AIR OVER ERN/NRN NY AND WRN VT/FAR WRN MA WILL
SUPPORT SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS
STRONG ELEVATED WAA OCCURS BENEATH SLOWLY SATURATING SFC-850 MB
LAYER. DEGREE OF WAA WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OVER NRN NY
INTO NWRN VT WITH PRECIP RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE FROM
17-20Z. EVENTUALLY THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED WARMING...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL SATURATION...WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN FROM W-E ACROSS NRN/ERN NY THROUGH 20Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44807506 45017247 44047264 42657305 41767396 41677690
42627700 43327658 

WWWW