[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280719 
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT OF NC/VA AND WV

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 280719Z - 281115Z

MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE NC/WV/VA APPALACHIANS
THROUGH 12Z...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES COMMON.
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/PIEDMONT...A NARROW ZONE OF SLEET/FZRA
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION NWD INVOF GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR.

STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COUPLED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED
UVVS...WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NC/VA OVERNIGHT. ALREADY EVIDENT IN GSP/CAE/LAX/RAX WSR-88D
VADS...40-60 KT ELY 850 MB JET WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS NC/VA
OVERNIGHT ON NRN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL CAROLINAS SFC CYCLONE. THESE
MOIST ELY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL FURTHER SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL
INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE SNOW RATES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES
COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT.

AS EVIDENT IN SPECIAL 06Z GSO RAOB...NARROW WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB
/APPROX 3.0 C IN RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT PARTIAL AND/OR FULL MELTING
ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH NC/VA. THUS A ZONE OF SLEET AND/OR
FZRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD ALONG A GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT WHERE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...A
TREND LARGELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z NAM/06Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.

..GUYER.. 02/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

38348115 38728049 38887993 39007942 39207842 38937775
37897810 37057851 36057983 35788125 35668186 35998242
36438237 36788255 36898265 37338259 38118168 

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