[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280223 
TXZ000-280330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 280223Z - 280330Z

MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDLAND AREA PROBABLY IS OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER
DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE
SUPPORTING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  SURFACE BASED-INVERSION LAYER
IS ALREADY FORMING...AND MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL APPROACHING
OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.  

AS STEERING FLOW ADVECTS ACTIVITY INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO...
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE EXPECTED.  AS
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING
SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY ALREADY BE WANING.

..KERR.. 02/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

32090144 32490116 32610078 31719890 31089900 31029986
31500072 

WWWW