[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241907 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD/NRN VA/SERN PA/NJ/DE/LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 241907Z - 242300Z

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MD/PORTIONS OF PA/DE/NJ...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND. HOURLY RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
LIKELY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW HAVE FORMED
AND ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.
THIS IS LIKELY THE ATMOSPHERE'S RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. JET MAX IS OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SRN MO GIVEN TRENDS IN CONWAY/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DATA.
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
OF 120M/12 HR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND PROVIDING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW
VA INTO SRN MD. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF THE NC COAST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL E/NELY
FLOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AND ASSOCIATED HIGH THETA-E AIR
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES NOTED AT
DOVER/STERLING AND WAKEFIELD VA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING ATTM. OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM PA TO
NJ/DELMARVA WITH THE BEST FORCING EVENTUALLY ENDING FROM W TO EAST
BEGINNING AROUND 25/00Z.

HEAVIEST SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM OKV THROUGH THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO
AREAS INTO SRN SECTIONS OF PHILADELPHIA AND DE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM ANDREWS AFB INDICATE 2 INCH/HR RATES WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
AT BALTIMORE REPORTED FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME...THOUGH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTN.

..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

40957594 39847828 38907790 37507540 39167326 40597203
41097208 41247307 

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