[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230028 
CAZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 30...

VALID 230028Z - 230230Z

TORNADO/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH 30 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 23/0200Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW BANDS OF LOW TOPPED
TSTMS...THOUGH RECENT LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS...GIVEN 20-30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR OBSERVED BY AREA VAD
WIND DATA. SINCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM SAN DIEGO SUPPORTS THE DECREASING INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
CELLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE OVER VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE
COUNTIES WHERE SE/ELY SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY.

..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...LOX...

34551770 34531983 32591810 32611603 

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