[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210522 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-210715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK INTO NRN AND CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...

VALID 210522Z - 210715Z

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHER STORMS NOW OVER N
CNTRL OK MAY STRENGTHEN/SPREAD E INTO NE OK AND NRN AR LATER
TONIGHT.  WW 19 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NE OK
AND NE AR.

A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY IN ZONE OF WEAK CONFLUENCE/INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO NE AR
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  FARTHER W...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER
N CNTRL OK TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE...WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX/UVV FIELD ENCOUNTERS SURFACE FRONT NOW BECOMING STNRY OVER
REGION.

GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE/...THE ISOLATED AR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL.  MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS STORM GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO
MERGE AND ACCELERATE EWD.

..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

36709522 36689618 36299639 35729640 35169597 34659491
34469348 34629115 34889031 35868974 36539007 36669345 

WWWW