[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210251 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-210445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MO / EXTREME ERN OK / NRN AND CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210251Z - 210445Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SRN MO...AND CONVECTION IS
SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN AR.  PARTS OF AR ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WEAKLY-ROTATING / MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN
MO...FROM HOWELL COUNTY MO WSWWD TO CARROLL COUNTY AR. THIS LINE
SHOULD PERSIST / SAG SLOWLY SWD INTO MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SWD.

MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE ACROSS WRN
AR...ALL WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN KS / NWRN OK.

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THIS REGION AS QG FORCING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
 HOWEVER...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ACT TO PARTIALLY
OFFSET SEVERE THREAT -- AT LEAST IN TERMS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN
AR...AND ITS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE.  A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION -- AND
ASSOCIATED MARGINAL HAIL / WIND THREAT -- WOULD LIKELY WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

36229431 36829144 36499110 35509123 34399286 34319411
34489445 35189468 36009481 

WWWW