[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141809 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 141809Z - 150015Z

A FAST-MOVING TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
THREAT EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND PORTIONS OF VT.

AT 18Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER /995MB/ CONTINUES TO TRACK NNEWD
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHOULD REACH JAMES BAY BY 06Z.
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A RATHER COMPLEX STRUCTURE TO THE ASSOCIATED
FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OH
VALLEY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED BY THE RUC TO AQUIRE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION BY 15/00Z. RESULT WILL BE
MARKED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH SLY 850MB WINDS OF
70-75 KTS ACROSS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.

THE PREVAILING DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULT IN
A MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION ZONE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM
SURFACE AIR APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS ERN NY/WRN MA AND
ESPECIALLY VT. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 15Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANGE FROM
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AT GFL AND RUT AROUND 23Z...WITH
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM SLK TO MPV AROUND 02Z.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CT RIVER VALLEY/NERN
VT THROUGH 03Z.

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE N-S
ORIENTED HUDSON AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF WARM
ADVECTION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
PERSIST IN MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND VT THROUGH 03Z.

..BANACOS.. 02/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

42787273 42407294 42217312 42217337 42317392 42507431
42817460 43067487 43347505 43647508 43877508 44357501
44747492 45007483 44967407 45027294 45037201 44977158
44627157 44467169 44337199 43367249 

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