[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140550 
MIZ000-141045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 140550Z - 141045Z

EXPECT MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI
AND THUMB ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...EXTREME ERN UPPER MI...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS LH/LM...THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z. SNOW RATES 2 INCH/HR ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES.  MEANWHILE...40-60 NM WIDE ZONE OF MIXED
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS EVIDENT AT 530Z IN SNOW-RAIN TRANSITION
ZONE BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY THE LINE MBL...MKG...MTC...ARB... JXN...MBL.
 THIS MIXED PRECIP ZONE WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THUMB...SAGINAW
BAY...HTL AND TVC AREAS DURING SAME PERIOD.  FREEZING RAIN RATES
AROUND .10-.25 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF THIS
TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD PASS N OF MTC...FNT...LAN AND GRR AREAS BY
ABOUT 08Z...ENDING SFC ICING AS RAIN CONTINUES.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MI -- PARTICULARLY IN 850 700 MB LAYER -- COINCIDING WITH EWD SHIFT
OF STRONGEST 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI NEWD
ACROSS LH.  AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/WRN LOWER MI
CONTINUES TO SATURATE...SFC EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MINIMIZED...THEN OFFSET BY COMBINATION OF WAA AND SENSIBLE HEATING
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER RAIN FALLING FROM ABOVE.  THEREFORE EXPECT
FREEZING LINE TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...ACCOMPANIED
BY CHANGE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.  HOWEVER...TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL BE MUCH SLOWER OVER ERN LOWER MI...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY
ADVECTION FROM ONT WILL DELAY WARMING OF WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND
CONTRIBUTE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS RAIN FALLS INTO LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 02/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...

42428268 42268371 42538465 43388619 44388693 45228642
46468549 46848494 46808478 46628464 46498458 46448449
46478445 46488440 46478427 46418418 46388416 46318413
46248411 46178405 46098397 46068389 46088382 46138372
46098355 46028348 45938347 45858351 45718345 45448303
44508235 43838219 43148233 43008240 42918245 42858247
42818246 42758247 42708248 42648251 42578258 42498268 

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