[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 152247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152246 
FLZ000-160015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152246Z - 160015Z

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 2235Z...TAMPA RADAR INDICATED A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS OFF
THE WRN FL PENINSULA WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FROM 45 NW OF
PIE TO 60 W PIE.  LOCAL AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
ADDITIONALLY...AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS AND 0-1
KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2.  

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL
EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND DEEP FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLS LATER THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

29008292 29378266 29388221 28708209 28268225 28048264
28288295 

WWWW