[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150304 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150304Z - 150430Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN
INTENSIFICATION OF MCS OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL MS INTO ERN LA OVER
THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.  CLOSE INSPECTION OF LOCAL RADAR DATA
SHOWS A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SE OF MCB MOVING NEWD AT
AROUND 50 KTS. ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S OF JAN TO THIS
MESOLOW AND THEN SWD TO N OF HUM HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED PER
REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  00Z LIX OBSERVED AND PROXIMITY RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED
ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 100-400 J/KG.

GIVEN DYNAMIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS CNTRL MS OVERNIGHT...SOME CONCERN
EXISTS THAT ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE.  AMBIENT SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG AND IF
STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD INCREASE.

..MEAD.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30299035 31329061 31749011 32178962 32038888 31408812
30548825 29688903 

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