[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Dec 14 23:59:16 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 142356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142356 
LAZ000-150130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN / S-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 895...

VALID 142356Z - 150130Z

THROUGH 02Z...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS
ERN HALF OF WW AREA...MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-10.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONSHORE PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR
MCS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION OBSERVED OFFSHORE SE OF LCH AS OF 2345Z.  LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT FROM VICINITY OF ESF EWD
TO S OF JAN...WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FARTHER TO THE
S...EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE ENE OF LCH SEWD TO N OF HUM. 
AIR MASS S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LARGELY INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.

GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT CAN
BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG/S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT. 
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS PRIMARY
FACTOR LIMITING MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 12/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29359282 29929284 30519250 30669217 30669144 30079129
29469139 29119153 29119231 

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