[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141750 
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-141915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141750Z - 141915Z

CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SE TX WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO SRN
LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF TORNADOES...HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60 F EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE HOUSTON AREA ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IN PLACE ALONG THE TX COAST EXTENDING NWD
INTO WRN LA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
TO SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL LA.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN LA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND EWD. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HAIL
AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 12/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...HGX...

30629434 31049369 31229185 31059124 30769096 30239079
29879090 29469124 29249261 29359394 29869441 

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