[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141542 
LAZ000-TXZ000-141745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141542Z - 141745Z

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IF A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS...A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING.

AT THE SFC...A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM JUST OFF THE
LOWER TX COAST INTO THE VICTORIA AREA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ABOVE A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION IS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TX AND THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ROOT NEARER THE
SURFACE ACROSS SE TX INTO FAR SWRN LA. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 12/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

27549622 27919727 28979756 30259586 30669367 30359193
29549137 28929212 28609344 28309458 

WWWW