[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081207 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-081600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...NWRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND
SRN IND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 081207Z - 081600Z

MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH A MIX OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NERN AR THROUGH SERN MO...NWRN TN...WRN KY AND
SRN IL THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IL INTO SRN IN AND WRN KY BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. 

EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL JET
WERE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AN AREA OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS FROM NERN AR NWD INTO MO. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING MID
LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SWRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM SERN IL...SRN IND INTO PARTS
OF NWRN KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRESENCE
OF A WARM LAYER AROUND 1 KM FROM WRN KY INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY START OUT AS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WET BULB TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. THE SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY NARROW...EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME NERN AR THROUGH NWRN KY.

..DIAL.. 12/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

35389202 37299066 38948802 39178657 38488563 37408590
36918704 36018928 34679132 

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